Holiday Bowl 2011 Preview: Texas Longhorns versus California Golden Bears

Dec 16, 2011

RETRIBUTION: Texas Longhorns vs California Golden Bears

SAN DIEGO, CA- The Texas Longhorns, an improved, if still disappointing 7-5, enter the fifth Holiday Bowl of Mack Brown’s storied tenure as head man at the Forty Acres. Emerging from the ignominy of last season’s unexpected nuclear-level tailspin and ultimately, fiery crash, the ‘Horns enter the contest with the California Golden Bears (7-5) of the Pac-12 Conference . As the Longhorns, who limped down the home-stretch at a 1-3 clip, are paired against a Cal squad that won three of four to close the regular season, it would appear that this is a match-up of two teams headed in obvious and opposite directions. Easy game to pick, right? Eh, not so much.

Just four weeks ago, this would have been an easy game to pick. The Longhorns, before that fateful day in Columbia, Missouri – a day that saw a season-ending knee injury shelve the beating heart and leader of this Texas team, senior RB Fozzy Whittaker, and further, revealed to all, the extent of the previous injuries that had befallen the ‘Horns running game – would have manhandled the Golden Bears, even with their own, um, questionable quarterback play. With the decimation of the Texas running game to the injury bug, however, these ‘Horns were revealed as a one-trick-pony – offensively speaking – and teams simply stacked the box, dared the ‘Horns to try and run, or better still, to try and pass. Yes, it was that bad, the Texas passing game. Bad decisions, costly turnovers, dropped passes – this was truly the gang that couldn’t pass right.

Texas O vs California D

The Texas passing game – or lack, thereof, brings to mind, an old football chestnut: “Three things can happen when you pass, and two of them are bad.” Darrell Royal used to say that, always credited his friend, fellow coaching legend, Woody Hayes for that mindset. And 36 years after Royal’s retirement, the sentiment seems entirely appropriate, prophetic, even. Indeed, if the Longhorns defeat the Golden Bears, it will be by the grace of a bruising running game returning to health for the first time in a long while. Led by Big XII Offensive Newcomer of the Year, Malcolm Brown (707 Yds, 5 Tds), the ‘Horns will attempt to make it easy for the quarterbacks, by controlling the line of scrimmage, eating up the clock and shortening the game, thereby keeping a capable Cal offense on the sidelines for much of the game. Nothing in the Cal resume for 2011 indicates that they can stop a healthy, rested Longhorn ground attack – in the only game they played against a potent running attack, the Golden Bears were gouged for 365 rushing yards, run roughshod upon, and finally, ground into submission by the Oregon Ducks (43-15).

Texas D vs California O

Make no mistake about it: California can move the football some; in fact, all of Head Coach Jeff Tedford’s Cal teams have shared that in common. The offense, ranked 37^th nationally, averages 251 yards passing per game and 167 rushing. The trigger-man is the competent junior Zach Maynard (2802 passing yards, 17 Tds and 11 Ints). Maynard’s top target is the junior wide-out, Keenan Allen, who has an impressive 89 receptions for 1261 yards and six Tds. The elusive 5’8”, 190lb, Isi Sofele, a tough-as-nails runner, leads the Golden Bear running attack with 232 rushes for 1270 yards and nine touchdowns. Yes, Cal can play a little offense.

That said, let me drop some numbers for your consideration: 2, 3, 4, 7, 12, 14. These are the national team total offense rankings of six of the Longhorns’ twelve opponents this season; they would be, in order of national rank, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas Tech. That’s a whole lot of potent offensive units that the Longhorn defense has battled this season. I find it unlikely, therefore, that the Golden Bears present anything that can much damage this terrific defense, ranked 14^thnationally. First year Defensive Coordinator, Manny Diaz, has done an impressive job this season with the Texas D, and with a month to prepare for this game, should have the ‘Horns playing lights-out on December 28^th.

Predicted Score

A return to health by Malcolm Brown bodes well for Texas, as does the intensive offensive line work of the past month in preparation for this game. I look for the line to push the Golden Bears around, beat them up physically, finally put the game away with a dominant second half performance. The defense, lit up last time out by Heisman Trophy winner, Baylor QB Robert Griffin III, will turn in a solid, bend-but-not-break outing, and Malcolm Brown’s two rushing scores and a defensive/special teams score will key a decisive 27-17 Longhorn victory. I will be surprised if the Longhorns pass more than 15 times in the game.

Texas 27 California 17 (line: Texas -3)