Texas vs Baylor Preview: A Matter of Attrition?

Dec 3, 2011

WACO: Floyd Casey Stadium will be rocking this afternoon, filled to the bursting point with – for a change – a majority of green and gold-clad, excited, hungry and presumably raucous Baylor Bears’ fans eager to partake in a communal roasting of the visiting Texas Longhorns. And why not? At 8-3 on the season, solidly bowl-bound,and for the first time in their long football history, conquerors of the Oklahoma Sooners, the Baylor Bears have much to be excited about. Consider the following:

Baylor ranks second nationally in total offense, with an average of 576.7 YPG.
The Bears are fifth nationally in passing offense, averaging 359.4 YPG.
With a ridiculous rating of 192.99, Baylor is the most efficient passing team in the land.
The Bears are average 43.1 points per game, rank sixth nationally in that category.

The Bears’ numbers are eye-popping, and, well, the lion’s share of the credit obviously belongs to the most exciting player in college-football today, QB Robert Griffin III (RG3). All the junior QB has done this season is to throw for 3678 YDS and 34 TDS (against only five INTS), while racking up an incredible efficiency-rating of 191.1. A serious (and worthy) Heisman Trophy contender, RG3 hopes to guide the high-octane Bears to a second consecutive win over the Longhorns, and in doing so, perhaps sway some Heisman votes his direction. It’s not out of the question.

Enter attrition. RG3 took some shots last week in the Bears’ 66-42 smashing of the Red Raiders, sat out the second half of that game. Determining that RG3 suffered a concussion, Baylor medics took his helmet away, refused to let him play. (No matter, his Bears ran wild in the second half anyway.) But the thing with concussions is: one just never knows the full import of them. Suppose RG3 takes a big shot or two this afternoon… Against the QB and RB-devouring Longhorn defense (ninth nationally) it could happen. What then? Attrition, indeed.

Texas O vs Baylor D

After steamrolling the defenses of Texas Tech and Kansas with the most brutal, punishing ground game the ‘Horns have displayed since the Earl Campbell glory days, the injury bug has laid waste to the Texas ground attack. Team leader Fozzy Whittaker tore up his knee at Missouri, was lost for the season. After gouging Tech for 191 yards and three TDS, freshman Joe Bergeron suffered an apparent hamstring injury, putting him on the bench. And it’s where he will be today, as he is not cleared to play.

Bergeron, by the way, was filling in for a turf-toe slowed Malcolm Brown. Brown, Texas’ top runner, who has played ineffectively since, is officially listed as questionable for today’s Baylor game. Like I said, attrition.

To win today, the Longhorns will somehow have to complete some passes and find a way to run the football. Banged up as the running backs are now – and have been, I am filled with trepidation. Prove me wrong, boys.

Texas D vs Baylor O

It is very simple to plan and draw out on a schematic – pressure and contain RG3 – the goals of the Texas D. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to execute. While I don’t see the Baylor Bear offense being stopped by anybody, if there is a defense not belonging to LSU or Alabama, that can slow them down, it would be these Longhorns. Interesting stat: RG3′s 34 TD passes have averaged 34.9 yards apiece. The Longhorn D is the only unit in the nation not to allow a TD pass over 20 yards. Hm.

Something has to give.

Prediction

A healthy Longhorn offense wins this game in thrilling fashion. Unfortunately, this is a dinged-up, patchwork affair with dubious, inconsistent QB play and, I fear, no running game. A valiant effort by the Horns’ D will go for naught. Great Baylor offense and attrition prove too much to overcome.

Texas 19 – Baylor 31 (line: Baylor -3)