Georgia Looks to Clinch SEC East vs. Kentucky

Nov 18, 2011

If I had told you back in early September that the 0-2 Georgia team was going to come back over South Carolina to win the SEC East, you’d have called me crazy. If I had told you on the same day that Georgia would do this by winning eight straight games against the likes of Florida and Auburn, you would have laughed in my face. Now we fast forward a couple of months and all of this is just on the verge of happening. After back-to-back weeks of Georgia domination against New Mexico State and Auburn, in which Georgia scored 108 points, compared to just allowing 23, the Dawgs are looking to clinch their division against a Kentucky team that has just one SEC win. Anything is possible, but things are looking up in Athens.

Offensive Comparison

QB:

Aaron Murray – Many worried that Murray had hit the sophomore wall at the beginning of the season after he lost his first two and threw six interceptions in his first five games. I even found myself questioning whether or not Murray’s success was A.J. Green created or not. However, since then he has only thrown two interceptions and as of last week, Murray broke the single-season passing TD record at UGA. Murray has managed a respectable 61.2% completion with a 158.2 passer rating and of course the record setting 27 TDs. All of this combined means that Georgia could have a solid guy at QB for the next two years.

Maxwell Smith – The Freshman did not come in as the starter until Kentucky’s eighth game against Mississippi State, where he completed almost 79% of his passes, though he only accumulated 174 yards. He broke out the next week against Ole Miss throwing for almost 300 yards with over a 50% completion percentage. This was also Kentucky’s only SEC victory. Overall, Smith is not a super productive QB, though his 2 INTs on the season show that he doesn’t make a lot of bad decisions. Expect him to manage the game decently and not be the reason for the loss, if Kentucky is to lose.

The advantage goes to the Dawgs here, by a long shot.

RB:

Isaiah Crowell and Carlton Thomas – Georgia’s tandem running back system has brought about very good results. Crowell, the freshman, receives most of the carries and is on the verge of 1,000 yards on the season. Both backs are averaging over 4.5 yards per carry and the Georgia run attack is getting a solid 100 yards per game. The one concern for these two guys is ball control, as they both, but especially Crowell, fumble a lot.

CoShik Williams – This Junior back has been the lead rusher for Kentucky when available to play. However, his only two impressive games came against less-than-stellar defenses. Most recently, Williams ran for just 22 yards against Vanderbilt. I imagine that against Georgia’s above average defense, he should not have very much success at all.

The obvious advantage goes to Georgia, once again.

O-Line:

Georgia O-Line – Georgia has the largest offensive line in football. Not in the SEC, not in college football, but ALL of football. That being said, they’re still giving up about 2 sacks per game. They have stepped it up though, and they open up some nice holes for the run game, so all-in-all, it’s a solid line.

Kentucky O-Line – With Smith behind the center, Kentucky is giving up about 2 sacks per game, which is comparable to Georgia. They are not nearly as big, and they have had little offensive production at all.

I’ll give Kentucky the benefit of the doubt and call this one a wash. I have not seen enough Kentucky football to adequately judge their O-line.

WR Corps:

Malcolm Mitchell, Orson Charles, Tavarres King – These guys had huge shoes to fill with A.J. Green leaving for the NFL draft last season. Early in the season, it looked as if they were not going to be even close. However, soon after, Mitchell emerged and the other two stepped it up. Going into this week, the three main receivers have over 1,000 yards receiving with 15 TDs and are each averaging 11.7 or more yards per catch. This group of guys is a big reason that Georgia is winning football games, and, even though one of them individually is as good as Green was, this may be collectively one of the better (and younger) receiving corps in UGA history.

La’Rod King, Matt Roark – Kentucky is by no means an offensive threat, which shows by the fact that they only have two guys with 15 or more receptions and only three who have over 100 yards receiving. King is a deep threat for Kentucky, while Roark is more of a possession, short-yardage receiver. I imagine that Kentucky will try to exploit Georgia deep early, so King may get some early looks.

Georgia once again has the obvious advantage over Kentucky.

Defensive Comparison

Defensive Line:

Georgia Defensive Line – Georgia has had some trouble tackling and stopping the run over the last couple of years. This year, this has not been the case. Georgia’s D-line has been really affective getting to the passer and stopping the run. This group has accumulated 7 sacks and 13 tackles for loss over the course of the season, which is much improved over the last couple of years.

Kentucky Defensive Line – The UK line has been less impressive. Combined they have just two sacks and just seven tackles for loss. Murray ought to feel very comfortable in the pocket this week.

Georgia has the advantage, and I expect to see a lot of pressure from this group.

Linebackers:

Georgia LBs – At the beginning of the season, I was worried that Georgia would have trouble replacing Rennie Curran. However, the 10 sacks by Jarvis Jones and the 15 sacks by the linebacker corps show that they are quite capable. I believe that the 87.1 yards per game allowed on the ground for Georgia speaks for itself.

Kentucky LBs – The backers at UK are a little better than the D-Line, but not much. They do have over 80 tackles among them, which are more than Georgia’s current starting linebackers, but their 4 sacks are much trumped by this weeks’ opponent. Not to mention, starting LB Ridge Wilson is out against Georgia.

Must I say it again? Georgia clearly has the advantage, especially with the Kentucky injury.

Secondary:

Georgia DBs – Georgia’s secondary is only giving up 186.2 yards per game in the air, which is very impressive. The reason that Georgia’s secondary has been so successful is their 13 interceptions, including 7 from Bacarri Rambo. Georgia’s stout run defense and their stingy passing defense have made it difficult for teams to put together any form of offense.

Kentucky DBs – Kentucky’s pass defense is not much worse than Georgia, as they are only allowing 194.9 yards per game in the air. They also have 12 INTs, which is also very comparable to Georgia. Murray needs to be careful this week.

I’ll give this one a wash. Yes, Georgia has a SLIGHT edge, but when you’re comparing Georgia and Kentucky, then a slight edge may as well be even.

Georgia Keys to Success

1. Get Crowell and Thomas going early, and go with the hot hand. Last week, Crowell was stagnant in the second quarter, but came out strong in the third, so Richt put him back in. Using the hot hand strategy has been the best for Georgia so far and they do not have to commit any carries to a back that is struggling.

2. Force Maxwell Smith into errors. He only has two interceptions on the year, and both of them came in the same game against South Carolina. If Georgia can get to him and get in his head, he has shown that he will start to make mistakes.

3. Play Georgia football. Georgia has a tendency to start to change things after everything starts to go right. Rely on the backs, let Murray throw when he needs to, and remember your fundamentals on defense.

4. Special Teams intensity is vital. Last week Georgia put more starters on the Kickoff, which paid off. They need to use the same personnel and carry the same intensity each and every time.

Kentucky Keys to Success

1. Force Aaron Murray to make mistakes. When Murray gets pressured, he starts to overthrow the ball and make hasty decisions. To win you’re going to have to find a way to get through that Georgia offensive line.

2. Make Georgia play a one-dimensional game. If Kentucky can shut down both backs early in the game and force Murray to pass, he will make mistakes. Aaron Murray, though a good, competitive QB, is not a QB who can carry a team by himself (at least not against an SEC team). Those 12 INTs that UK has on the season will have to come in handy this week.

3. Get CoShik Williams going; in the wins he has played in, he has run for over 100 yards. In each of the losses he’s participated in, he’s not been able to run for more than 70. This will be exceptionally difficult against a Georgia defense that does not give up yards very easily.