November 5. Austin – The Texas Tech Red Raiders come to Austin, bringing along the nation’s fifth-ranked passing attack, the nation’s 114th rated rushing defense, and presumably, a legion of tortilla-flinging, red and black face-painted rowdies. In some ways, it almost seems as though the ex-bull-goose loony, himself – former head coach, Mike Leach – never left. But no, he’s gone, and this is Tommy Tuberville’s team now.
Tuberville’s boys are quarterbacked by Seth Doege, a former high school legend, now carving out a new legacy on the dusty Lubbock plains. Doege enters the fray at DKR Memorial Stadium with just under 2800 yards passing, 22 TDs and only six INTs; his completion percentage is a glitzy 67.9%. Under his wing, the Red Raider offense averages over 508 yards per game (8th nationally) and rings up a shade under 39 points per game. Familiar stuff, no? Things change, yet somehow the song remains the same.
Banjo strums. “Oh, I got dem Red Raider Blues,
Ooooooh, I dooooo.
Seven and four, and a bowl game tooooo…
But I ain’t got no D, for shame on me.”
So, we have a strong, bruising running game versus a siren-raising, dangerous aerial attack – Texas vs Texas Tech. Like I said: Things change, but the song remains the same. So who wins?
Once upon a time…
When I was young, I obsessed over stats and scores (Come to think of it, I still do.). Picking the winner of a game was simple, deceptively so. Here’s how my reasoning went:
If Team A played and beat Team B by ten points, and Team B played and whipped team C by thirty big ones, then Team A was going to beat Team C by forty points. Obvious and simple, no? It made perfect sense to my forty-year old, er, ten year old mind. Cogito ergo sum.
Applying this logic to the game, here is what happens:
Tech beat Oklahoma 41-38.
Oklahoma beat Texas 55-17.
Tech beats Texas by 41.
Hm. Let’s analyze this with different variables:
Texas beat Iowa State 37-14.
Iowa State beat Tech 41-7.
Texas beats Tech by 57.
Hm. Don’t think so either.
What I think happens…
The Longhorns enter the fray at 5-2, coming off a complete dismantling of the hapless Kansas Jayhawks, the Red Raiders, 5-3, after a complete dismantling by the Iowa State Cyclones… at home, no less. For the first time since the Cedric Benson days, the ‘Horns have a true power running game, the kind Coach Mack has lusted for in his heart. (And he wasn’t alone! All of us in the burnt orange were waiting for this – a communal lust.) Last week saw Texas gouge and grind the Jayhawks into bologna with 441 yards on the ground. True freshmen RBs, Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron, racked up 255 of those yards and four TDs, becoming the first frosh duo in Longhorn history to run for the century mark in the same game. And while I do not envision that again today, I feel safe in calling 150 for Malcolm Brown, almost a 100 from Whittaker, and another dominant day of ground work all in all.
And they will need it. Tech comes in , their pride battered and bruised something fierce; the Red Raiders will want to make amends by whipping the Longhorns, burying them in an aerial attack of biblical proportions. If the Longhorn secondary plays like a deer-in-the-headlights (ala the Oklahoma game) , and the defensive line fails to get pressure on Doege, it will be ugly for the home team. On top of that, the Longhorns must also control their propensity for turnovers. A quick-strike Tech squad will rip the Horns apart if the turnover bug comes calling. So, without further ado…
Predicted Score
The Red Raiders, still stinging from last week’s home debacle, come out swinging, moving swiftly and smoothly. The Longhorns remain composed, gradually assert control in the second half, dominating the time of possession with surging, power running by Brown, quick slashes by Fozzie Whittaker and timely big catches from Mike Adams and Jaxon Shipley. Tech rebounds, plays well, gains a measure of redemption. But it won’t be enough.
Texas 34 Texas Tech 24 (Betting line: Texas -14)
Post Tags:aerial attack, Auto, completion percentage, dkr memorial stadium, Draft, ground, home, Longhorns, mike leach, Red, seth doege, Tech, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Tommy Tuberville
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by: A.J Hernandez
more by: A.J Hernandez
