CFB Week 4 Recap: Don’t Believe the Hype

Sep 26, 2011

As we all well know, preseason rankings mean nothing when it comes to accurately judging the current version of a college football team.

Those rankings, based on statistics from the previous season plus assumptions of how teams will fare in the upcoming season, are about as useless as a remake of Charlie’s Angels.

So it’s right about this time, after most teams have played three or four games, when we can start to truly evaluate which squads have legitimate shots at winning a national championship, and which teams were just coasting on lofty reviews and inflated expectations.

In my opinion, after watching games for the last four weeks, there are only five teams with a chance to hoist the crystal football in New Orleans next January. The rest are all fighting to stay out of the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.

Prebook Hotel Rooms in the French Quarter:

LSU (#1, 4-0) - the Bayou Bengals jumped Oklahoma as the number one team in the country on the strength of their impressive 47-21 victory over West Virginia in Morgantown, and deservedly so. With dominating wins over three ranked teams already, and a defense that has allowed only 57 points thus far, the Tigers are on track to play for the National Championship in their own backyard. …that is until Les Miles’ inevitable clock management meltdown game.

Oklahoma (#2, 3-0) - some people don’t believe the Sooners deserved to drop a spot despite beating a tough Missouri squad, 38-28, in Norman. But I think it’s a great sign that the voters are actually weighing every contest instead of keeping the status quo when each team wins. Not all victories are created equal, and LSUs destruction of a ranked team 0n the road was more impressive than OU’s come-from-behind rally at home. Besides, being ranked one or two will still get you a trip to the Only Bowl That Matters.

Alabama (,#3, 4-0) - as predicted here last week, the Tide had no trouble with the schizophrenic Arkansas Razorbacks, a team that can look like a title contender one week and a Pop Warner team the next. Despite losing key players at important positions, ’Bama once again looks to be locked and loaded for another SEC title run, and that means a BCS title game bid won’t be far behind.

Oklahoma State (#5, 4-0) - much like the pollsters vaulted LSU over Oklahoma, I’m catapulting the Cowboys over the Boise State Broncos based on OSU’s stunning 30-29 come-from-behind victory over Texas A&M in College Station. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon are as powerful a QB/WR combo as there is in the game, and after years of falling just short of greatness, the Cowboys look hungry to finally prove the doubters wrong. The truth will come out on December 3rd when the Sooners come to Stillwater.

Boise State (#4, 4-0) - ho hum, another blowout win for the Broncos on the blue turf in Boise. Saturday’s 41-21 throttling of Tulsa did nothing to make the case for Boise to jump into the top three, and with a typically weak schedule the rest of the way – the Broncs have just one currently ranked team left to play, a soft #20TCU squad – don’t expect to see the boys in blue in the title game. I still like this team, and I believe they can go toe-to-toe with any club in the country, but until they get into a meaty conference they will always be also-rans in the title chase.

Don’t Believe The Hype:

FSU (preseaon #6, current #23) - no team has suffered the stinging fall from preseason glory as much as the not-yet-ready-for-primetime Noles. A hard-fought loss at home to Oklahoma was followed up with a game comeback attempt at Clemson, but there are no points given for losing to division rivals on the road. But don’t fret, Jimbo – the future still looks bright in Tally.

Oregon (preseason #3, current #9) - the Ducks have followed up their opening loss to LSU with three beatdowns by a combined score of 181-58. But with tough contests left against Arizona State, Stanford, USC and the Civil War vs. Oregon State, it’s unlikely Oregon will run the table the rest of the way.

Notre Dame (preseason #16, currently unranked) - this was supposed to be the year the Irish returned to national prominence, but embarrassing losses to USF and Michigan to open the season has earned Brian Kelly a spot on the Rich Rodriguez Memorial Hot Seat.

USC (preseason #25, currently unranked) - not that there was much hype surrounding Lane ‘Tosh.O’ Kiffin’s probabtion-strapped squad, but just as the the Trojans were starting to feel good about themselves after starting 3-0, they came crashing back to Earth with a thud as Arizona State snapped an 11 game skid against the men of Troy with their 43-22 lashing late Saturday night. It was a nice way to end Week 4, and a good place to end this post.