UT Longhorns vs Rice: A Preview

(Note: This was scheduled to be posted by yours truly on Saturday afternoon, only I screwed up. Mea culpa.)

Texas vs Rice Preview

Before an audience expected to number over 100,000, the season opener for the Longhorns and Owls finally kicks off Saturday night, a few minutes past 7 :00 pm. The game marks the start of the 100^th season of Rice football, and the 93^rd meeting between these two programs. The Longhorns have dominated the all-time series (70-21-1), and have won eleven straight over the Owls, including last season’s 34-17 win at Reliant Stadium. In fact, the Owls have not won a road opener since a 2001 win over cross-town rival Houston. Don’t expect them to rewrite history this year.

The Longhorns, still smarting from the sting of last season’s 5-7 debacle, have a huge chip on their collective shoulder, have had a long time to hear the criticism, and feel the fickle disregard and scorn that has been heaped upon them. The coaching staff has been totally revamped, new systems – offensive and defensive – have been put into place. And Mack Brown seems edgy too, appears as though he too would like to hit someone himself. This Longhorn team has a statement to make in 2011. It begins with a punching out of longtime rival, the Rice Owls.

Texas O vs Rice D

Much-maligned (and justifiably so), the Texas offense opens the 2011 season with a mixture of something old and something new. Returning at QB is Garrett Gilbert, whose less than stellar numbers a season ago, have made him the most unpopular man on campus, and by default, made back-up QB Case McCoy, the most popular man on the 40 Acres. Only named the starter just this past week, Gilbert had to earn his return ticket to the starting ranks, winning the role only after pitched battles in the Spring and the Fall camps. For what it is worth, Gilbert’s teammates are all on board, commenting on G.G.’s rediscovered swagger and leadership abilities. In any case, with new offensive co-coordinator Bryan Harshin (Boise State) calling the shots, and a downright meaner O-Line (thanks to new Offensive Line coach Stacy Searels – Georgia) to block, Gilbert should have a real running game this game and for the upcoming season. Fozzy Whitaker starts at RB, with bruising FB Cody Johnson (last year’s leading rusher) plowing a path for him. A year ago, the ‘Horns piled up 197 yards rushing on 46 attempts against the Owls, with Tre Newton (now retired) collecting 61 yards and Whitaker and Johnson amassing 51 and 59 yards respectively. Gilbert went 14-23 for 172 yards in the game with no TDs, and more importantly, no INTs. As always when these two meet on the gridiron, the size advantages all favor the Longhorn offensive line vs the Rice defensive line. I see the Longhorns and their meaner offensive blockers, coupled with Harshin’s down field, power-blocking schemes wearing, then beating down a smaller, but game Rice squad, easily matching, then surpassing last year’s totals. The pressure on QB Gilbert to make plays will be abated, and look for him to have a statistically solid, if unspectacular game. And, by chance, if the Texas O struggles, Garrett’s leash at QB will be very short indeed.

Texas D vs Rice O

Yes, I am aware that the Owls ran for 263.5 yards per game over their final four games of last season’s 4-8 record. I am also aware that leading RB Sam Guffie (883 yds) returns, along with a veteran O-Line and a pair of strong tight ends. That said, this game comes down to the Texas front seven on defense, and, well, it should be a mismatch. The Longhorn defensive line and the linebacking corps are fast and physical, a veteran squad, that should rank in the top ten nationally by season’s end. Yes, the secondary returns only Blake Gideon, but who is going to have time to throw against these monsters? Outside of teams from Norman, Stillwater and College Station, I am hard-pressed to think of anyone else that could take advantage of this unit. With new defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz (Mississippi State) calling shots, the Owls will have a hard time getting untracked this week.

Final outcome

Look for the Longhorns to pound the ball into the very gut of the Owl defense with modest success at first, developing into a brutal, decisive advantage by midway through the third quarter. Whitaker and Johnson should easily match last year’s numbers, and G.G. should be solid, if unspectacular at QB – remember, the elite teams aside, Gilbert need only be reliable and mistake-free to have a good season.

Look for the defense to yield a bit early in the game, eventually pull together and put a pasting on these Owls.

Predicted score: Texas 34 Rice 10 (Current line: Texas -22)

Stay tuned for Texas/BYU preview coming on Saturday, September 10.