Horseshoes and Hand Grenades…Our Week #4 Picks

Sep 30, 2010

Baltimore Ravens Wide Receiver Anquan Boldin Celebrates

A friend of mine asked me earlier last week how I go about deciding which players to start and which to sit in fantasy football each week. He implied that it couldn’t be that difficult. Of course, I brought up the “countless hours” of reading and analyzing stats and match-ups each week for every team in the league as well as following up on trends that indicate how certain players perform under certain conditions. But then it hit me. When I’ve completed all this preparation and catalogued the most important information, I still am left with decisions that are seldom easy and often a down right crap shoot . Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying fantasy football picks are akin to throwing darts in the dark. But let’s face it. Amateurs and experts alike pick winners and losers every week. Certainly, I am no different. What makes one a success is in getting it right more times than not. So let’s see how we are doing.

At quarterback, Tom Brady did not disappoint. Neither did Tony Romo. Matt Schaub, like the rest of the Texans, did not seem prepared to compete at the same level as Dallas and it showed. As a side note, at the time we submitted our selections for week #3, it was likely that Kevin Kolb was the Eagles starter. Obviously, we all know what happened there. I’m not saying I’d have picked Vick but it did have an impact on my one running back selection.

Speaking about running backs, won with Ray Rice and Cedric Benson but Maurice Jones-Drew was a shadow of himself against a Philly defense that had been effectively run on in the first two weeks.

Wes Welker gave us less than expected given our anticipation of Brady having another banner day. Scored big on our sleeper with Bolden breaking the goal line three times on Sunday. Tight end play was sporadic but Tony Gonzalez lived up to our belief in him with an above average production.

Neither kicker gave us much but remember that kickers aren’t necessarily going to be the cause of a win in fantasy football but boy can they sure hurt you in a loss. Finally, the Ravens defense played well below expectations against a Browns offense without a real star performer. And our last pick (a long shot) was the Tampa Bay defense against the Steelers 4th string quarterback. Result – utter humiliation. Pittsburgh moves the ball at will whether it be via the run or pass.

So how do we grade ourselves based on the criteria mentioned in the beginning of the article? Some good but a lot more bad. Time to get back on the horse and give it another go.

The season’s first bye week (no Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, nor Bucs) brings us a couple of intriguing matchups. Defense will likely decide the outcomes of the Ravens/Steelers and Redskins/Eagles games. Focus on Lambeau Field and take Aaron Rodgers of the Pack. Yeah, I know it’s a “short week” but it’s also at home versus the Lions (enough said, even this early in the season.) I also like Drew Brees at home against Carolina and coming off a loss. It could get ugly often for Coach Fox and the Panthers.

At running back, take a look at Chris Johnson of the Titans against the Broncos. Not sold on Denver’s front seven and believe he could have one of those monster games he gives us every once in a while. Try Clinton Portis of the Redskins versus the Eagles porous run defense (yes, I know the Jags did not fair so well but one game does not change a trend). Also take a run at Ronnie Brown of the Dolphins who is due for a strong game especially against a Pats defense that really surprised a lot of people with their inability to stop a Bills offense that had been futile at best prior to that matchup.

I just love wide receivers in fantasy football. Let me tell you why. Say your a little unsure which of your quarterbacks offers the best potential performance on any given Sunday. Say, like me, you also draft receivers from the same teams as your quarterbacks believing that you stand to take home “double” production that way. Here’s how I do it….if you play quarterback “A”. take receiver “B” and vice versa. You may not see that “double” point total but you hedge against a complete meltdown and hope for at least one scenario to hit . That being said, go with Roddy White of Atlanta, Chad Ochocinco of the Bengals and Reggie Wayne of the Colts. Using the premise stated above, that would mean I also liked (just not as much) Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer at quarterback. And with Peyton under center, you almost have to look at one of his receivers to have a good day. At tight end, I like Dallas Clark (ditto), Vernon Davis, and Chris Cooley.

Just so we can fill out our roster, I’ll go with Rob Bironas of the Titans and Robbie Gould of the Bears. On defense, give either the Saints or the Packers some attention. Remember…..close only counts with horseshoes and hand grenades (andthe occasional fantasy football prediction). Let me turn the light back on and see where those dart landed…….