Sep 6, 2010
A lot has been written about fantasy football drafts and all the nuances each league offers. Trust me – everyone thinks he or she is an expert when it comes to predicting how players will perform this upcoming season. The truth is that no one, not the broadcasters, reporters, nor football insiders can predict with certainty how each season will go. Sure, there are tendencies to observe and educated “guesses” to be made that will ultimately make your decisions a little less stressful. With that in mind, let’s look at each position and determine what we can believe (with some accuracy).
Quarterbacks in the NFL are considered the most critical position on a team and almost always will determine the outcome for a team’s success. But it is precisely for this reason that NFL teams all look for “franchise” players at this position. With so much talent to be had across the board, there’s every reason to not make a quarterback your first fantasy selection. Yes, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady are all outstanding fantasy point producers and will serve any owner very well. But by selecting one of these players first in your draft, you are leaving yourself open to having to select a player at another position that may not provide as much quality for the place he is selected. Let me make this a little clearer. The difference between elite quarterbacks and the very good tier is much less than it is for say running backs given the same criteria. So my advice would be to go after a top line running back first if possible, given the number of teams in your league and where you are selecting.
By now, you all know which running backs are rated highest and it would be self-serving for me to echo just about everyone else’s thoughts. But once those top-line players are off the board, it gets a little more interesting. For my money, look at Gore/SF, Turner/ATL and Moreno/DEN as likely 2nd tier players and Michael Bush/OAK and Donald Brown/IND as a couple of lower round sleepers that can and will add depth to your lineup.
Now, let’s say the owners in your league all pushed the panic button early on and swooped up those quarterbacks we mentioned earlier. No worry…actually good for you. That would mean you likely got one of those premier running backs (Johnson/TEN, Peterson/MINN, Jones-Drew/JAX or Rice/BALT) and are in position to get a quality quarterback that will yield high numbers, i.e. no drop off in talent, such as Schaub/HOU, Rivers/SD or Romo/DAL and/or my two sleepers at this position – Joe Flacco/BALT and KevinKolb/PHI.
Wide receivers offer a mirror image of quarterbacks in this year’s draft in that there are a few #1’s but no significant drop-off through those ranked in the top 10. If you are looking for later round quality, I’d put my money on players like Crabtree/SF, Driver/GB and Maclin/PHI along with Knox/CHI and Berrien/MINN.
At the risk of sounding redundant, tight ends are also plentiful at lower picks without any appreciable drop off in point production. Give me Davis/SF, Celek/PHI and Miller/OAK. Not exactly the glamour names, but solid performers who will get you what you need.
Lots of people know what I think about drafting kickers. Keep it simple and go with experience. Akers/Kaeding/Bironas are all tenured high-caliber players who will be there in the end. And as far as DEF selections, nothing has changed in regards to personnel or coaching philosophies from last year that would give me cause to second-guess my initial analysis. Sacks and turnovers rule so look at last year’s leaders and pick accordingly. By the way, I still like the Jets (even with Revis sitting out so far).
So we talked about the usual cast of front line and second tier selections. Many leagues ask you to fill out your roster with “lower value” players (especially those leagues with a $ cap on value by position). Here is where you show your skills. Don’t get sucked in to the idea that teams with top flight quarterbacks will also have solid depth at the receiving positions. Often, those passers whose ratings are a little less enviable are throwing to guys they are more comfortable with, having worked with them more as second team players. Also, don’t get fixated on rookies that went undrafted early on in you league. Ist year players can and usually will hit the wall later in the season when injuries mount up and you are forced to start lower tier players. And lastly, please do not forget to know when a player you are considering drafting is on a bye week. Nothing makes losing more likely than not being able to field a position because you failed to draft accordingly.
Hey…have fun. Pay attention to the other owners and what they are doing each round. Have fun. Be flexible with how you rank players overall. Have fun. Believe in your strategy and stick with it no matter what. Oh, and have fun…
I’ll be here all year to analyze each week’s offerings. I’ll hit on some, miss on a few, and generally scratch my head on occasion. But I’ll still be smiling because the owners I’m going against will be scratching their heads also….
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by: bdawkinsfan
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