Free Picks for NFC and AFC Championship Game
When the games were over last week I must have received at least 50 text messages and phone calls , about my pick on the Jet game (picked the Chargers), and boy did I get a bunch of grief(Jets fans don’t let you live that kind of thing down).
What was funny is that nobody mentioned that I predicted that 1 wild card team would win. Here is my quote from last weeks picks, ” I will break down each of the games for you and why I think the Chargers, Colts, Saints, and Vikings will cover. With that said, we are playing the percentages this week. One of these teams will lose to a wild card team, but hey, 3 out of 4 ain’t bad.”
So I didn’t get the Jet game right, but more importantly I did get 3 of the 4 games picked correctly. Many people want to know how to make money in a miserable economy, I say follow my picks. ( If gambling was legal that is) For the year my record for college football ended up being 29-22, getting the games correct 56% of the time, but the NFL games my record is 36-19, that is 65% correct against the spread. That is a whole lotta cheddar being made.
Before I pick these two games, I do want to say that I have an Uncle Joe, a real Italian New Yorker. If he lived in Vegas,his wise guy name would be “Joey Parlay”. He gave me some advice about betting against the spread when the line falls on a -4, or a -8 which is the case in both games this week. His advice is, when it’s -4 take the favorite, and when it’s -8 take the underdog. So we are taking the Saints-4 and the Jets +8. Since then the line has moved a little.
New York Jets +8.5 vs Indianapolis Colts
If Indy jumps out to a quick lead this game is over, and it will be a long wait to watch the next game. However I don’t think that happens. This game reminds me a lot of when the Giants played the Patriots in the final season game, and then again in the Super Bowl. The Giants, even though they lost the final game of the season to the Pats, won themselves a swagger. With that swaggerness, they ended up beating the Patriots in a rematch later that year in one of the most memorable Super Bowls ever.
Now I know a lot of you are thinking the Colts were winning that game when they took out their starters, but lets not get carried away. They were up 15-10, it was still anyone’s game.
For this game 8.5 points is a lot to give a great defensive team, with the NFL’s number one rushing offense. I don’t think the Jets win this game, but they cover.
As a side note, never seen so many Jets fan’s at church on a Sunday, maybe god can help you all today.
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 vs New Orleans Saints
Looking at this game right away I said to myself that the Vikings were a lock. They will be able to run all over the Saints poor defensive front line. If they needed to pass , they should be able to exploit their mediocre secondary with their big play WR’s. Jared Allen should be able to get pressure on Brees, like he did with Romo. So I decided to take a look at what was happening in Vegas. For the money line ( which is no spread for either team, who ever wins the game, wins the bet) 74% of the money is rolling in on the Vikings. This normally is not a big thing, but when only 2 games are on for that weekend, it means a lot of money is being bet. Again, Vegas was not built on winners, it was built on losers.
This game will indeed be a high scoring affair. However, I think the Saints will have more success moving the ball down the field due to Brees being a better QB than Favre. Brees, like Peyton Manning can get the ball out of his hands quickly, which should neutralize Jared Allen coming off the corner.
This game will come down to home field advantage. It will be deathly loud in the Super Dome, take the Saints as they advance to their first Super Bowl Ever.
Tags: Drew Brees, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, Peyton Manning
